Why Zac Gallen Can Still Be the Orioles' Pitching Solution
The 2026 offseason has brought a stark contrast to the disappointing winter that preceded the 2025 season. The Orioles made significant moves, signing slugger Peter Alonso, trading for Taylor Ward and Shane Baz, and acquiring Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Helsley for the bullpen. Yet, the lingering feeling from last offseason persists: the starting rotation still feels incomplete.
Despite the addition of Baz, the Orioles' front office has yet to secure a pitcher to challenge Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers for the top spot in the rotation. The team has missed out on several opportunities. They were reportedly interested in Ranger Suárez, who signed a five-year, $130M deal with Boston, and were seen as front-runners for Framber Valdez, who signed a three-year, $115M deal with Detroit. With other starters like Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Tatsuya Imai off the board, one pitcher remains who could truly elevate the Orioles' rotation: former Diamondbacks All-Star Zac Gallen.
Gallen, despite not having a stellar 2025 season, offers an All-Star upside with room for improvement. Unlike Suárez and Valdez, Gallen's decline was not due to a strong 2025 season. The Diamondbacks' decision to let Gallen reach free agency was influenced by his disappointing 2025 performance, marked by a 4.83 ERA, a career-low K/9 of 8.2, and career-worst H/9 and HR/9. However, a closer look reveals that his regression wasn't due to a change in his batting average against or BABIP. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate remained stable, and his pitch velocities were largely unchanged.
The potential cause of his decline was a noticeable trend of leaving the ball up and over the middle of the plate. When Gallen was a top pitcher in 2022 and 2023, he effectively used his fastball and cutter to attack the zone, while his knuckle curve and changeup targeted below the zone, generating strikeouts. Last year, his fastball became more susceptible to being hit in the middle of the plate, and he struggled with his curveball, leaving it up more than ever. This led to a career-high fly ball rate, resulting in a higher home run rate and slugging percentage against.
Gallen's identity as a pitcher is also in flux. A decline in confidence in his fastball and cutter led him to rely more on his changeup, which became his best pitch for the first time in his career. Whether this increased changeup usage can be refined to restore his All-Star form remains to be seen. However, the Orioles have a history of helping pitchers like Bradish, Rogers, and Zach Eflin improve their pitch mix, and there's reason to believe they can unlock Gallen's potential, given his 3.20 ERA and 9.4 K/9 across 2022, 2023, and 2024.
Gallen's timing is also ideal for the Orioles' timeline. As he enters his age-30 season, he is two years younger than Valdez and at least seven years younger than rumored targets Chris Bassitt and Justin Verlander. While the Orioles may not be able to compete for the AL East title, AL pennant, and World Series title in 2026, they are also not solely focused on the upcoming season.
Among the Orioles' projected starters, only Eflin is over 30, and only Rogers is a free agent after the 2026 season. The front office's approach to the rotation has been criticized for its lack of long-term planning. Signing Gallen to a multi-year deal would provide the foundation needed for sustained contention, something the Orioles have struggled to achieve since the 1970s.
Furthermore, Gallen's injury history is less concerning compared to other free agent starters. While Lucas Giolito missed time with a hamstring injury and has a history of Tommy John surgeries, Justin Verlander, 43, has been plagued by leg, shoulder, and neck injuries in recent seasons. Gallen, on the other hand, has been remarkably healthy, with only two significant injuries in his career: a hamstring strain in 2024 and an elbow sprain in 2021. Given the injury concerns of other Orioles starters, adding a proven workhorse like Gallen would be a significant boost to the rotation.
