The 2026 Outlook for the Rays’ Catching Position
When it comes to evaluating the catching unit for the Tampa Bay Rays, it's impossible to ignore the stark contrast from last season, which was widely regarded as disappointing. The performance of the catchers fell short of the expectations set by the team's historical standards, ranking among the least effective groups in the league both offensively and defensively. Fortunately, the Rays’ front office recognized this shortcoming and made strategic moves to bolster the team during the trade deadline. The players they acquired are not only familiar with the organization’s philosophies regarding pitching and catching but also have previous experience collaborating with existing pitchers.
One addition that has particularly piqued my interest is Nick Fortes. His defensive prowess stands out, as he excels in various aspects of catching. Furthermore, he possesses a reliable, contact-focused offensive profile, making him a valuable asset. I also believe Hunter Feduccia could emerge as a long-term fixture at this position, complementing Dom Keegan, who is aiming to make his mark in the major leagues in the upcoming seasons.
2025 Performance Insights
To better understand how the catching group performed, let’s look at some essential offensive metrics from last season for the catchers who played in the majors. This will help us compare their outputs against the league averages. Key indicators include the in-zone versus out-of-zone swing rate, which gauges plate discipline; contact percentage, reflecting bat-to-ball skills; 90th percentile exit velocity, representing raw power; and the combined line drive plus fly ball rates, which indicate how effectively a player converts contact into productive hits.
Here are the statistics for the relevant catchers:
| Player | PA | Z-O Swing% | Contact% | EV90 | LD+FB% |
|------------------|-----|------------|----------|---------|----------|
| Danny Jansen | 259 | 43.8% | 78.1% | 102.2mph| 73.3% |
| Hunter Feduccia | 102 | 38.4% | 73.4% | 103.7mph| 56.6% |
| Nick Fortes | 101 | 27.3% | 81.0% | 104.4mph| 44.9% |
| Matt Thaiss | 80 | 39.9% | 70.4% | 103.5mph| 54.3% |
| Ben Rortvedt | 70 | 38.7% | 78.3% | 100.0mph| 51.1% |
| Total | 612 | 39.3% | 76.6% | 102.8mph| 62.1% |
| League Average 2025 | - | 37.1% | 76.6% | 105.1mph| 58.9% |
Interestingly, despite their overall offensive struggles, the group managed to display above-average swing decision-making and average contact capabilities. However, they significantly lagged in terms of raw power, meaning that while they made solid contact, the outcomes didn’t translate into substantial offensive contributions.
Defensively, catchers have traditionally placed a premium on their ability to perform well. With the introduction of the challenge system, offense may take on greater importance, but competencies like receiving, throwing, and blocking will still be crucial. Last season, the Rays catchers recorded the third-lowest framing strike rate across all teams, coupled with below-average pop times. On a more positive note, they were tied for fourth in the league for blocking above-average plays per game. However, the variance between the best and worst in blocking isn’t nearly as pronounced as it is for receiving and throwing, which could lessen the advantage of being an exceptional blocker unless the challenge system alters that dynamic.
Looking Ahead to 2026
As we approach the new season, I anticipate a noticeable improvement in offensive output now that Jansen, Rortvedt, and Thaiss are no longer part of the roster. Bringing Keegan into the fold throughout the season should further enhance the group’s offensive capabilities. Considering a projected distribution of playing time among Fortes (45%), Feduccia (45%), and Keegan (10%), let’s review the key performance indicators based on MLB data for Fortes from 2024-2025 and AAA data for Feduccia during the same timeframe, along with Keegan’s 2025 AAA stats.
| Player | Playing Time | Z-O Swing% | Contact% | EV90 | LD+FB% |
|------------------|--------------|------------|----------|---------|----------|
| Nick Fortes | 45% | 32.1% | 86.0% | 102.5mph| 56.5% |
| Hunter Feduccia | 45% | 43.3% | 78.0% | 104.4mph| 51.7% |
| Dom Keegan | 10% | 23.1% | 69.2% | 106.9mph| 65.5% |
| Total | 100% | 36.2% | 80.7% | 103.8mph| 55.2% |
| League Average 2025 | - | 37.1% | 76.6% | 105.1mph| 58.9% |
| Rays Catchers 2025 | - | 39.3% | 76.6% | 102.8mph| 62.1% |
The future looks intriguing for this catching cohort. Their offensive trajectory aligns with the broader trends seen across the team’s position players, focusing heavily on plate discipline and contact skills. What sets this group apart is the potential for more impactful offensive contributions compared to last year, thanks to the power capabilities of both Feduccia and Keegan. It’s worth noting that Keegan’s swing decisions and contact abilities may not have been fully realized in AAA due to challenges like health and competition, but he possesses notable power that could make a difference at the major league level later in the 2026 season.
On the defensive side of things, Fortes stands out as the most experienced and capable catcher among the group, leading me to believe he will receive the majority of the playing time, at least in the initial stages. His skills as a receiver (ranking in the 82nd percentile for framing strike rate last season), a thrower (66th percentile pop-time), and a blocker (76th percentile for blocks above average per game) make him a considerable upgrade from what the team had last year.
Feduccia appears to be a reliable receiver based on his limited defensive sample, showing promise in AAA with his framing strike rate since 2024, and his throwing skills have the potential to reach at least an average level as he continues to develop (highlighting good arm strength, though his exchange speed could improve).
Keegan will need to work on improving his below-average pop times and marginally average receiving stats in AAA. However, I believe that with his athleticism and arm strength, he can elevate his defensive game to match or even exceed Feduccia’s level.
Key Takeaways
Assuming there are no significant injuries this spring, I foresee this catching unit becoming the most steady and predictable among all the player groups. I'm optimistic that they will collectively outperform the catchers from last season on both offense and defense. Their defensive capabilities surpass any combination of catchers from 2025, and if Keegan makes a late-season debut, it could infuse the group with much-needed power.
