Europe’s support for Ukraine is faltering, and the consequences could be dire. Boldly put, Kyiv’s ability to sustain its fight against Russia hangs in the balance, and Europe’s recent decisions aren’t helping. After the European Union failed to reach an agreement on using frozen Russian assets—a staggering €210 billion—to bolster Ukraine’s finances, the bloc’s commitment is being called into question. But here’s where it gets controversial: while the EU did agree to a €90 billion funding package, this falls woefully short of what Ukraine needs to stay in the fight. According to the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine’s budgetary shortfall over the next two years is closer to $160 billion, thanks in part to reduced U.S. financial support. So, where does that leave Kyiv? In a precarious position, to say the least.
The rejected proposal, dubbed the “reparations loan,” would have repurposed Russian assets frozen in a Belgian clearing bank, providing Ukraine with guaranteed funding for two years. But legal concerns from Belgium, coupled with lukewarm support from key leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, torpedoed the plan. Despite weeks of negotiations and high hopes from advocates like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the proposal collapsed. And this is the part most people miss: the €90 billion package, while significant, is spread over two years and secured against the EU’s budget, leaving Ukraine in a financial tight spot.
European leaders tried to put a positive spin on the deal. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, for instance, highlighted that the loan could eventually be repaid using immobilized Russian assets. But this feels like counting chickens before they hatch—everything hinges on the terms of a future peace deal. Meanwhile, securing additional funding won’t be easy. Three countries—Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic—already opted out of the joint-borrowing scheme, and others may follow suit, especially with 2027 being a critical election year in France and Germany. Plus, with Trump in the White House, don’t expect additional U.S. cash anytime soon.
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever hailed the deal as a “victory for Ukraine, financial stability, and the EU.” Yet, this rosy view doesn’t align with reality. Russian President Vladimir Putin, for one, sees Europe’s divisions as a sign that time is on his side. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned, if Putin believes Ukraine can’t sustain its resilience, he’ll have little incentive to end the war. Last week’s debacle only reinforced this notion, potentially paving the way for Putin’s 28-point plan—crafted with Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff—to resurface, leaving Ukraine and Europe in a perilous position.
Public opinion isn’t helping either. A recent POLITICO Poll of 10,000 respondents revealed that voters in Germany and France are even more reluctant to fund Ukraine than those in the U.S. In Germany, 45% supported cutting aid, while only 20% wanted to increase it. In France, 37% favored reducing aid, with just 24% supporting more. These numbers underscore a growing impatience with the war, which Putin is surely watching closely.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal had hoped European leaders would use last week’s European Council meeting to counter Trump’s narrative of a “weak and decaying” Europe by unlocking frozen Russian assets. Instead, they missed the opportunity, leaving Europe’s unity and resolve in doubt. Is Europe truly committed to Ukraine’s survival, or is it quietly stepping back? The answer may lie in how—or if—the bloc addresses Ukraine’s funding gap in the months ahead. What do you think? Is Europe doing enough, or is Kyiv being left to fend for itself?
